New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
CanucksScoring summary
- P318:27Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (3), Adam Fox (6)2–0
- P117:28Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (2), Adam Fox (5)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:28Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (2), Adam Fox (5)NYR 1 – 0 VAN · NYR 53% → 69% +16NYR 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P318:27Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (3), Adam Fox (6)NYR 2 – 0 VAN · NYR 99% → >99% +1NYR 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML NYR -125 / VAN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 43.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -114
- VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +44 Elo | VAN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
| 28th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Elo rating | 149520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–1 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.