Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Barrett HaytonGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Barrett HaytonPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:34Connor McDavid Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (6)3–6
- P217:56Connor McDavid Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Jake Walman (4)3–5
- P214:10Ty Emberson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (3), Mattias Ekholm (5)3–4
- P213:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (3), Evan Bouchard (5)3–3
- P28:19Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (10), Mikhail Sergachev (7)3–2
- P23:13Isaac Howard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (2)2–2
- P20:22Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Evan Bouchard (4)2–1
- P117:45JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P19:25Logan Cooley Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:25Logan Cooley Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (7)UTA 1 – 0 EDM · UTA 43% → 59% +16UTA 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P23:13Isaac Howard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (2)UTA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 37% → 56% +18EDM 37% → 56%+18 pts
- P28:19Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (10), Mikhail Sergachev (7)UTA 3 – 2 EDM · UTA 45% → 65% +20UTA 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P213:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (3), Evan Bouchard (5)UTA 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 33% → 55% +21EDM 33% → 55%+21 pts
- P214:10Ty Emberson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (3), Mattias Ekholm (5)UTA 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 55% → 75% +20EDM 55% → 75%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML UTA +125 / EDM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -133
- UTA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +54 Elo | EDM 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.8% | Shot share | 55.0%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.1%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 29th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321518 | Elo rating | 15434th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–3 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.