New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Will CuyllePoints2
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:42Will Cuylle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (5), Adam Fox (8)3–2
- P26:59Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (6), Chandler Stephenson (4)2–2
- P113:50Noah Laba Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (4), Alexis Lafrenière (5)2–1
- P112:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (5), Eeli Tolvanen (3)1–1
- P110:16Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7), Jonny Brodzinski (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:16Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7), Jonny Brodzinski (1)NYR 1 – 0 SEA · NYR 55% → 70% +15NYR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P112:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (5), Eeli Tolvanen (3)NYR 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 30% → 45% +15SEA 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P113:50Noah Laba Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (4), Alexis Lafrenière (5)NYR 2 – 1 SEA · NYR 55% → 70% +16NYR 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P26:59Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (6), Chandler Stephenson (4)NYR 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 28% → 46% +18SEA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- OT2:42Will Cuylle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (5), Adam Fox (8)NYR 3 – 2 SEA · NYR 51% → 97% +46NYR 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML NYR -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15124th of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–1 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.