Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists3
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals2
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:44Cole Caufield Goal (9) Poke, assists: Nick Suzuki (14), Lane Hutson (9)4–3
- P318:17Brandon Montour Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (4), Jaden Schwartz (5)3–3
- P315:17Shane Wright Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Eeli Tolvanen (2)3–2
- P38:57Brandon Montour Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (3), Mason Marchment (4)3–1
- P35:55Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (2), Noah Dobson (6)3–0
- P117:28Juraj Slafkovský Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Nick Suzuki (13)2–0
- P110:25Cole Caufield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12), Noah Dobson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:25Cole Caufield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12), Noah Dobson (5)MTL 1 – 0 SEA · MTL 53% → 68% +15MTL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P117:28Juraj Slafkovský Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Nick Suzuki (13)MTL 2 – 0 SEA · MTL 69% → 83% +13MTL 69% → 83%+13 pts
- P315:17Shane Wright Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Eeli Tolvanen (2)MTL 3 – 2 SEA · SEA <1% → 9% +9SEA <1% → 9%+9 pts
- P318:17Brandon Montour Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (4), Jaden Schwartz (5)MTL 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 1% → 49% +48SEA 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT0:44Cole Caufield Goal (9) Poke, assists: Nick Suzuki (14), Lane Hutson (9)MTL 4 – 3 SEA · MTL 51% → 92% +41MTL 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML MTL -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 47.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 27th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15145th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.