New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Simon NemecGoals3
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Simon NemecPoints3
Blackhawks- Landon SlaggertGoals1
- Louis CrevierAssists2
- Louis CrevierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:28Simon Nemec Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (2), Luke Hughes (9)4–3
- P316:14Simon Nemec Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (1), Jack Hughes (10)3–3
- P313:34Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (6), Louis Crevier (6)2–3
- P310:13Dawson Mercer Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Arseny Gritsyuk (5)2–2
- P33:05Landon Slaggert Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (5), Nick Foligno (5)1–2
- P219:45Simon Nemec Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (9), Timo Meier (9)1–1
- P118:35Connor Bedard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (9), Tyler Bertuzzi (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:05Landon Slaggert Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (5), Nick Foligno (5)NJ 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 47% → 73% +26CHI 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P310:13Dawson Mercer Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Arseny Gritsyuk (5)NJ 2 – 2 CHI · NJ 20% → 52% +32NJ 20% → 52%+32 pts
- P313:34Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (6), Louis Crevier (6)NJ 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 48% → 86% +38CHI 48% → 86%+38 pts
- P316:14Simon Nemec Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (1), Jack Hughes (10)NJ 3 – 3 CHI · NJ 8% → 51% +44NJ 8% → 51%+44 pts
- OT3:28Simon Nemec Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (2), Luke Hughes (9)NJ 4 – 3 CHI · NJ 51% → 99% +48NJ 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / CHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +11 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +17 Elo | NJ 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 44.4%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
| 8th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 144530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 13–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.