New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:17Mathew Barzal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9), Ryan Pulock (7)3–2
- P319:55Simon Nemec Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (11), Timo Meier (8)2–2
- P317:07Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Poke, assists: Matthew Schaefer (7), Bo Horvat (8)2–1
- P26:55Bo Horvat Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (8)1–1
- P12:12Timo Meier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10), Luke Hughes (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:12Timo Meier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10), Luke Hughes (8)NYI 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 55% → 69% +14NJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P26:55Bo Horvat Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (8)NYI 1 – 1 NJ · NYI 28% → 46% +18NYI 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P317:07Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Poke, assists: Matthew Schaefer (7), Bo Horvat (8)NYI 2 – 1 NJ · NYI 49% → 95% +46NYI 49% → 95%+46 pts
- P319:55Simon Nemec Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (11), Timo Meier (8)NYI 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 0% → 50% +50NJ 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:17Mathew Barzal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9), Ryan Pulock (7)NYI 3 – 2 NJ · NYI 49% → 92% +44NYI 49% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NYI +115 / NJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 61.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- NYI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +78 Elo | NJ 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–4 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.