Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Fraser MintenAssists1
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Marat Khusnutdinov Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P315:06Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Fraser Minten (3), David Pastrnak (11)3–3
- P35:05Bo Horvat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (6), Kyle Palmieri (6)2–3
- P217:29Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (11), Morgan Geekie (3)2–2
- P213:06Bo Horvat Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (7), Emil Heineman (3)1–2
- P212:21Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2), Casey Mittelstadt (5)1–1
- P25:11Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (2), Kyle MacLean (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:21Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2), Casey Mittelstadt (5)BOS 1 – 1 NYI · BOS 24% → 43% +19BOS 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P213:06Bo Horvat Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (7), Emil Heineman (3)BOS 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 57% → 76% +20NYI 57% → 76%+20 pts
- P217:29Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (11), Morgan Geekie (3)BOS 2 – 2 NYI · BOS 23% → 44% +21BOS 23% → 44%+21 pts
- P35:05Bo Horvat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (6), Kyle Palmieri (6)BOS 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 55% → 80% +25NYI 55% → 80%+25 pts
- P315:06Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Fraser Minten (3), David Pastrnak (11)BOS 3 – 3 NYI · BOS 9% → 47% +38BOS 9% → 47%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML BOS +140 / NYI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 53.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +25 Elo | NYI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 5th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 25th of 321477 | Elo rating | 147026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–4 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.