Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:07Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (2)3–4
- P314:25
Alex Tuch Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (8)3–3 - P37:00Josh Doan Goal (4) Batted, assists: Alex Tuch (7), Owen Power (3)2–3
- P219:39Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Poke, assists: Tanner Jeannot (3), Sean Kuraly (3)1–3
- P216:01Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Tage Thompson (5)1–2
- P115:07David Pastrnak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P113:07Morgan Geekie Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (10), Pavel Zacha (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:01Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Tage Thompson (5)BUF 1 – 2 BOS · BUF 15% → 32% +17BUF 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P219:39Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Poke, assists: Tanner Jeannot (3), Sean Kuraly (3)BUF 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 70% → 88% +17BOS 70% → 88%+17 pts
- P37:00Josh Doan Goal (4) Batted, assists: Alex Tuch (7), Owen Power (3)BUF 2 – 3 BOS · BUF 7% → 24% +17BUF 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P314:25Alex Tuch Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (8)BUF 3 – 3 BOS · BUF 13% → 52% +39BUF 13% → 52%+39 pts
- OT2:07Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (2)BUF 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 49% → 95% +46BOS 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML BUF -140 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 47.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.316th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.726th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.1%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.0%28th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
| 5th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 15099th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.