New York Islanders at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Michael EyssimontGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Elias LindholmPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:37Fraser Minten Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (4)2–5
- P35:48Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8), Elias Lindholm (5)2–4
- P27:48Michael Eyssimont Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Nikita Zadorov (3)2–3
- P26:49David Pastrnak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (1), Andrew Peeke (2)2–2
- P23:57Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (8), David Pastrnak (9)2–1
- P14:52
Kyle Palmieri Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (6), Bo Horvat (5)2–0 - P11:08Bo Horvat Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Bo Horvat Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (5)NYI 1 – 0 BOS · NYI 57% → 71% +14NYI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P23:57Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (8), David Pastrnak (9)NYI 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 14% → 27% +13BOS 14% → 27%+13 pts
- P26:49David Pastrnak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (1), Andrew Peeke (2)NYI 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 27% → 45% +18BOS 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P27:48Michael Eyssimont Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Nikita Zadorov (3)NYI 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 45% → 64% +20BOS 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P35:48Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8), Elias Lindholm (5)NYI 2 – 4 BOS · BOS 75% → 92% +17BOS 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYI -145 / BOS +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 50.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI 0 Elo | NYI 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 87.3%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 32 |
| 26th of 321471 | Elo rating | 146727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.