Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Alexander NikishinGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Alexander NikishinPoints1
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Casey MittelstadtPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:11Alexander Nikishin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Jordan Martinook (5)1–2
- P35:05Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4), Charlie McAvoy (10)0–2
- P31:27Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (9), Pavel Zacha (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:27Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (9), Pavel Zacha (10)CAR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 42% → 67% +26BOS 42% → 67%+26 pts
- P35:05Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4), Charlie McAvoy (10)CAR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 71% → 90% +19BOS 71% → 90%+19 pts
- P317:11Alexander Nikishin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Jordan Martinook (5)CAR 1 – 2 BOS · CAR <1% → 5% +5CAR <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -200 / BOS +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -180
- BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +36 Elo | CAR 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.316th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.626th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150810th of 32 |
| 4th of 321545 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.