Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals2
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (2)6–3
- P317:36Jack Eichel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (7), Mitch Marner (10)5–3
- P315:01Jack Eichel Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (6)4–3
- P36:10Brett Howden Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (1), Keegan Kolesar (2)3–3
- P32:31Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (3), Jackson Blake (5)2–3
- P212:07Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P118:03Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Jack Eichel (11)2–1
- P16:27Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (9), Tomas Hertl (5)1–1
- P13:46Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:03Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Jack Eichel (11)VGK 2 – 1 CAR · VGK 42% → 59% +17VGK 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P212:07Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 36% → 57% +21CAR 36% → 57%+21 pts
- P32:31Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (3), Jackson Blake (5)VGK 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 55% → 79% +24CAR 55% → 79%+24 pts
- P36:10Brett Howden Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (1), Keegan Kolesar (2)VGK 3 – 3 CAR · VGK 19% → 45% +26VGK 19% → 45%+26 pts
- P315:01Jack Eichel Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (6)VGK 4 – 3 CAR · VGK 47% → 88% +41VGK 47% → 88%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML VGK +140 / CAR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -149
- VGK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +1 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +69 Elo | CAR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.92nd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 55.2%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 32 |
| 6th of 321536 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–4 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.