New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints1
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Logan StankovenAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (4)2–6
- P310:59Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (4), Logan Stankoven (3)2–5
- P310:48Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (4)2–4
- P31:51Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (4), Brandon Bussi (1)1–4
- P113:20Matthew Schaefer Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Jonathan Drouin (6)1–3
- P110:21Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (1), Andrei Svechnikov (1)0–3
- P15:21Mike Reilly Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: none0–2
- P12:33Bradly Nadeau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:33Bradly Nadeau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 65% → 78% +13CAR 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P15:21Mike Reilly Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: noneNYI 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 78% → 87% +10CAR 78% → 87%+10 pts
- P110:21Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (1), Andrei Svechnikov (1)NYI 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 94% +6CAR 88% → 94%+6 pts
- P113:20Matthew Schaefer Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Jonathan Drouin (6)NYI 1 – 3 CAR · NYI 6% → 12% +6NYI 6% → 12%+6 pts
- P31:51Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (4), Brandon Bussi (1)NYI 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 94% → 99% +5CAR 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML NYI +180 / CAR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -191
- NYI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −7 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +93 Elo | CAR 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 53.6%6th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Elo rating | 15416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–8 CAR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Mar 30NYI 4 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 75%Hit
- Jan 25CAR 2 @ NYI 3Picked CAR 66%Miss
- Dec 17NYI 0 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 7CAR 3 @ NYI 4Picked CAR 64%Miss
- Apr 30NYI 3 @ CAR 6PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 2 @ NYI 3PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 3 @ NYI 2PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Miss
- Apr 22NYI 3 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit