Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Miles WoodGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Miles WoodPoints1
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals2
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:22Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (7), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4)2–3
- P318:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P312:10Denton Mateychuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Sean Monahan (5)2–1
- P215:21Miles Wood Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fantilli (4), Boone Jenner (5)1–1
- P15:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6), Kyle Palmieri (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6), Kyle Palmieri (5)CBJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 68% +15NYI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P215:21Miles Wood Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fantilli (4), Boone Jenner (5)CBJ 1 – 1 NYI · CBJ 27% → 48% +21CBJ 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P312:10Denton Mateychuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Sean Monahan (5)CBJ 2 – 1 NYI · CBJ 49% → 84% +35CBJ 49% → 84%+35 pts
- P318:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 2 NYI · NYI <1% → 50% +50NYI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- P319:22Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (7), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4)CBJ 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 50% → >99% +50NYI 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML CBJ +105 / NYI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +46 Elo | NYI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 10th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 16th of 321505 | Elo rating | 146826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–4 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.