St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayAssists1
- Oskar SundqvistPoints1
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:48Nick Bjugstad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P35:07Sean Monahan Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Kirill Marchenko (6)1–3
- P211:55Zach Werenski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (2)1–2
- P14:38Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cole Sillinger (4), Ivan Provorov (3)1–1
- P13:37Justin Faulk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (5), Dylan Holloway (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:37Justin Faulk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (5), Dylan Holloway (4)STL 1 – 0 CBJ · STL 44% → 59% +15STL 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P14:38Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cole Sillinger (4), Ivan Provorov (3)STL 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 41% → 56% +15CBJ 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P211:55Zach Werenski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (2)STL 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 74% +20CBJ 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P35:07Sean Monahan Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Kirill Marchenko (6)STL 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 79% → 94% +15CBJ 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P39:48Nick Bjugstad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 2 – 3 CBJ · STL 3% → 17% +14STL 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML STL +120 / CBJ -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 59.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +14 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +65 Elo | CBJ 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3284.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–325th of 32 |
| 21st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150710th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Elo rating | 150316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–4 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.