Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorAssists2
- Drew O'ConnorPoints2
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists2
- Pius SuterPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P310:48Pius Suter Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (4), Oskar Sundqvist (4)3–3
- P37:04Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (2), Drew O'Connor (3)3–2
- P210:42Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (2), Marcus Pettersson (2)2–2
- P20:58Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Jordan Binnington (1)1–2
- P113:08Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (5)1–1
- P13:23Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (3), Pius Suter (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:08Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (5)VAN 1 – 1 STL · VAN 26% → 41% +15VAN 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P20:58Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Jordan Binnington (1)VAN 1 – 2 STL · STL 58% → 74% +16STL 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P210:42Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (2), Marcus Pettersson (2)VAN 2 – 2 STL · VAN 24% → 43% +19VAN 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P37:04Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (2), Drew O'Connor (3)VAN 3 – 2 STL · VAN 45% → 75% +29VAN 45% → 75%+29 pts
- P310:48Pius Suter Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (4), Oskar Sundqvist (4)VAN 3 – 3 STL · STL 20% → 54% +34STL 20% → 54%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML VAN +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- STL: Elo 58.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- VAN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | 0 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +57 Elo | STL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.431st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.532nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 84.0%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 32 |
| 20th of 321491 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–5 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.