Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints3
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists2
- Philip BrobergPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Dylan Larkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6)5–2
- P315:36Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (2), Philip Broberg (3)4–2
- P212:56Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (2), James van Riemsdyk (1)4–1
- P211:14Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (1), Lucas Raymond (5)3–1
- P119:24Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (3), Dylan Larkin (8)2–1
- P112:01Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Alex DeBrincat (8)1–1
- P10:47Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (5), Philip Broberg (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:47Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (5), Philip Broberg (2)DET 0 – 1 STL · STL 51% → 65% +14STL 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P112:01Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Alex DeBrincat (8)DET 1 – 1 STL · DET 33% → 49% +16DET 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P119:24Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (3), Dylan Larkin (8)DET 2 – 1 STL · DET 49% → 66% +17DET 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P211:14Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (1), Lucas Raymond (5)DET 3 – 1 STL · DET 69% → 85% +16DET 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P212:56Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (2), James van Riemsdyk (1)DET 4 – 1 STL · DET 86% → 95% +9DET 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML DET -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 4.331st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.330th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 84.4%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Elo rating | 150814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.