New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Matt RoyAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Mathew Barzal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (2)3–1
- P34:29Bo Horvat Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (2), Ryan Pulock (5)2–1
- P214:58Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4)1–1
- P24:48Tom Wilson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (4), Matt Roy (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:48Tom Wilson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (4), Matt Roy (1)NYI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 63% → 79% +16WSH 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P214:58Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4)NYI 1 – 1 WSH · NYI 20% → 39% +19NYI 20% → 39%+19 pts
- P34:29Bo Horvat Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (2), Ryan Pulock (5)NYI 2 – 1 WSH · NYI 41% → 69% +28NYI 41% → 69%+28 pts
- P318:44Mathew Barzal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (2)NYI 3 – 1 WSH · NYI >99% → >99% +1NYI >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 66%
- ML NYI +185 / WSH -225
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 69.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -197
- NYI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +141 Elo | WSH 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 67.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 53.1%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%4th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 15269th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–5 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.