Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors DAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P20:43Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Mikko Rantanen (8)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:43Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Mikko Rantanen (8)WSH 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 53% → 70% +17DAL 53% → 70%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML WSH +105 / DAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +29 Elo | DAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–324th of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 32 |
| 9th of 321528 | Elo rating | 15317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.