New Jersey Devils at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints1
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Cutter GauthierAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:06Chris Kreider Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (11), Pavel Mintyukov (3)1–4
- P37:43Jack Hughes Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Timo Meier (7)1–3
- P21:54Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (5), Beckett Sennecke (3)0–3
- P114:24Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (4)0–2
- P14:13Beckett Sennecke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (5), Ryan Poehling (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:13Beckett Sennecke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (5), Ryan Poehling (3)NJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 49% → 64% +15ANA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P114:24Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (4)NJ 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 65% → 79% +14ANA 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P21:54Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (5), Beckett Sennecke (3)NJ 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 81% → 91% +10ANA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P37:43Jack Hughes Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Timo Meier (7)NJ 1 – 3 ANA · NJ <1% → 5% +5NJ <1% → 5%+5 pts
- P318:06Chris Kreider Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (11), Pavel Mintyukov (3)NJ 1 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 51%
- ML NJ -115 / ANA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -104
- ANA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +27 Elo | ANA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
| 10th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 148531st of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Elo rating | 146528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–3 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.