Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Troy Terry Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P316:54Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (6), Carter Verhaeghe (3)2–2
- P311:12Anton Lundell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (5), Eetu Luostarinen (2)2–1
- P212:27Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Leo Carlsson (7)2–0
- P29:59Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Drew Helleson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:59Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Drew Helleson (3)ANA 1 – 0 FLA · ANA 42% → 62% +20ANA 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P212:27Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Leo Carlsson (7)ANA 2 – 0 FLA · ANA 63% → 81% +18ANA 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P311:12Anton Lundell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (5), Eetu Luostarinen (2)ANA 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 4% → 20% +16FLA 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P316:54Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (6), Carter Verhaeghe (3)ANA 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 6% → 53% +46FLA 6% → 53%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 61%
- ML ANA +150 / FLA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -159
- ANA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −34 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.84 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +97 Elo | FLA 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 54.0%5th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 12th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321471 | Opponent Elo | 148629th of 32 |
| 30th of 321458 | Elo rating | 15552nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.