New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists4
- Cale MakarPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:38Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (2)4–8
- P33:10Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (8), Cale Makar (12)4–7
- P215:24Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (11), Victor Olofsson (7)4–6
- P214:12Jack Hughes Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (8)4–5
- P213:42Dawson Mercer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (8), Timo Meier (6)3–5
- P211:48Dougie Hamilton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (5), Luke Hughes (6)2–5
- P210:08Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (1)1–5
- P28:39Parker Kelly Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ross Colton (4), Brent Burns (5)0–5
- P27:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (10), Victor Olofsson (6)0–4
- P22:31Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Ahcan (1), Gabriel Landeskog (3)0–3
- P13:49Zakhar Bardakov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (2), Gavin Brindley (1)0–2
- P11:24Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (9), Valeri Nichushkin (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:24Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (9), Valeri Nichushkin (3)NJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 61% → 74% +13COL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P13:49Zakhar Bardakov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (2), Gavin Brindley (1)NJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 74% → 85% +11COL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P22:31Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Ahcan (1), Gabriel Landeskog (3)NJ 0 – 3 COL · COL 87% → 95% +7COL 87% → 95%+7 pts
- P214:12Jack Hughes Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (8)NJ 4 – 5 COL · NJ 10% → 23% +13NJ 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P215:24Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (11), Victor Olofsson (7)NJ 4 – 6 COL · COL 77% → 91% +13COL 77% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML NJ +145 / COL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- COL: Elo 60.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -154
- NJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +72 Elo | COL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 32 |
| 8th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 32 |
| 13th of 321515 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.