Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Simon NemecAssists3
- Simon NemecPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:53Jack Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (7)3–4
- P313:55Brock Nelson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (3), Sam Malinski (4)3–3
- P212:51Connor Brown Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (6)2–3
- P117:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (7), Devon Toews (1)2–2
- P112:55Valeri Nichushkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (8), Victor Olofsson (5)1–2
- P19:48Jack Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (5), Brenden Dillon (3)0–2
- P19:09Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:09Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (5)COL 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 69% +15NJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P117:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (7), Devon Toews (1)COL 2 – 2 NJ · COL 30% → 46% +16COL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P212:51Connor Brown Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (6)COL 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 53% → 73% +20NJ 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P313:55Brock Nelson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (3), Sam Malinski (4)COL 3 – 3 NJ · COL 12% → 49% +37COL 12% → 49%+37 pts
- OT1:53Jack Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (7)COL 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 51% → 95% +44NJ 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML COL +110 / NJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | COL: Trent Miner: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +35 Elo | NJ 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +1.51st of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.9% | Shot share | 53.2%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 151313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.