Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists3
- Leo CarlssonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:28Troy Terry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (10)2–5
- P30:55Chris Kreider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Cutter Gauthier (4), Leo Carlsson (9)2–4
- P215:25Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Moritz Seider (5)2–3
- P26:35Mason McTavish Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (2), Cutter Gauthier (3)1–3
- P112:24Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (8), Jacob Trouba (4)1–2
- P18:19Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (9), Alex DeBrincat (10)1–1
- P14:53Troy Terry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (4), Leo Carlsson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Troy Terry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (4), Leo Carlsson (8)DET 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 54% → 69% +14ANA 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P18:19Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (9), Alex DeBrincat (10)DET 1 – 1 ANA · DET 31% → 46% +15DET 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P112:24Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (8), Jacob Trouba (4)DET 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 54% → 69% +16ANA 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P215:25Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Moritz Seider (5)DET 2 – 3 ANA · DET 11% → 26% +15DET 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P30:55Chris Kreider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Cutter Gauthier (4), Leo Carlsson (9)DET 2 – 4 ANA · ANA 76% → 91% +15ANA 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 54%
- ML DET +110 / ANA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +21 Elo | ANA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%22nd of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 148231st of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Elo rating | 146129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.