Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Marco KasperPoints2
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:27Corey Perry Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (8), Anze Kopitar (5)3–3
- P317:47Corey Perry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (10), Kevin Fiala (4)3–2
- P314:45Marco Kasper Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mason Appleton (3), Alex DeBrincat (9)3–1
- P215:46Marco Kasper Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (2), Andrew Copp (4)2–1
- P213:22Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (7), Moritz Seider (4)1–1
- P212:39Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (7), Cody Ceci (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:39Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (7), Cody Ceci (2)DET 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 75% +20LA 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P213:22Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (7), Moritz Seider (4)DET 1 – 1 LA · DET 25% → 45% +20DET 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P215:46Marco Kasper Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (2), Andrew Copp (4)DET 2 – 1 LA · DET 45% → 68% +22DET 45% → 68%+22 pts
- P314:45Marco Kasper Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mason Appleton (3), Alex DeBrincat (9)DET 3 – 1 LA · DET 88% → >99% +11DET 88% → >99%+11 pts
- P318:27Corey Perry Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (8), Anze Kopitar (5)DET 3 – 3 LA · LA 1% → 51% +50LA 1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML DET +125 / LA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LA: Elo 56.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +47 Elo | LA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
| 4th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 152410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–3 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–1 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.