Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Brandt ClarkeGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Brandt ClarkePoints2
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:20Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (9), Joel Edmundson (5)4–3
- P34:48Alexander Wennberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Jeff Skinner (2)3–3
- P217:16Philipp Kurashev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (3), William Eklund (6)3–2
- P215:33Will Smith Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (10), Tyler Toffoli (2)3–1
- P26:43Drew Doughty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1), Alex Turcotte (3)3–0
- P23:21Jeff Malott Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (2), Joel Edmundson (4)2–0
- P110:54Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (5), Alex Laferriere (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:54Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (5), Alex Laferriere (2)LA 1 – 0 SJ · LA 64% → 77% +14LA 64% → 77%+14 pts
- P23:21Jeff Malott Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (2), Joel Edmundson (4)LA 2 – 0 SJ · LA 78% → 89% +11LA 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P217:16Philipp Kurashev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (3), William Eklund (6)LA 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 8% → 20% +13SJ 8% → 20%+13 pts
- P34:48Alexander Wennberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Jeff Skinner (2)LA 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 18% → 42% +24SJ 18% → 42%+24 pts
- P313:20Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (9), Joel Edmundson (5)LA 4 – 3 SJ · LA 55% → 89% +34LA 55% → 89%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 65%
- ML LA -210 / SJ +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LA: Elo 66.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -186
- SJ +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +115 Elo | LA 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.732nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.431st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 42.4%32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 86.4%30th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 32 |
| 9th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 11th of 321523 | Elo rating | 138032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | — |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–3 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.