New Jersey Devils at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals2
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists1
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:12Dawson Mercer Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (1), Brenden Dillon (4)4–1
- P39:49Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (6), Alex Laferriere (3)3–1
- P33:09Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (2)3–0
- P23:12Brian Halonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (3), Dennis Cholowski (1)2–0
- P11:22Nico Hischier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:22Nico Hischier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (7)NJ 1 – 0 LA · NJ 48% → 62% +15NJ 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P23:12Brian Halonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (3), Dennis Cholowski (1)NJ 2 – 0 LA · NJ 66% → 81% +15NJ 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P33:09Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (2)NJ 3 – 0 LA · NJ 91% → 98% +7NJ 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P39:49Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (6), Alex Laferriere (3)NJ 3 – 1 LA · LA <1% → 4% +4LA <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P316:12Dawson Mercer Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (1), Brenden Dillon (4)NJ 4 – 1 LA · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML NJ +100 / LA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- LA: Elo 57.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +53 Elo | LA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 0–431st of 32 |
| 11th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Elo rating | 152210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.