New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals2
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Sharks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:19Dawson Mercer Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dougie Hamilton (3), Jesper Bratt (9)2–5
- P218:30Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Timothy Liljegren (3)1–5
- P216:50Will Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (11)1–4
- P119:00Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (6), Dougie Hamilton (2)1–3
- P115:47Alexander Wennberg Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (2), Timothy Liljegren (2)0–3
- P112:12Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (4)0–2
- P10:42William Eklund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:42William Eklund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (3)NJ 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 34% → 49% +14SJ 34% → 49%+14 pts
- P112:12Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (4)NJ 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 52% → 68% +16SJ 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P115:47Alexander Wennberg Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (2), Timothy Liljegren (2)NJ 0 – 3 SJ · SJ 69% → 82% +13SJ 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P119:00Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (6), Dougie Hamilton (2)NJ 1 – 3 SJ · NJ 16% → 29% +13NJ 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P216:50Will Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (11)NJ 1 – 4 SJ · SJ 82% → 93% +11SJ 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 66%
- ML NJ -215 / SJ +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 62.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NJ -191
- SJ +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +91 Elo | NJ 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.632nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −1.431st of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 45.4%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 85.7%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 0–530th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 137932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.