Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:33Jesper Bratt Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none3–4
- P318:53Timo Meier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (7), Jack Hughes (8)3–3
- P310:33Oliver Kapanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Newhook (5)3–2
- P30:59Jake Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2), Noah Dobson (9)2–2
- P28:05Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Simon Nemec (8)1–2
- P12:59Kirby Dach Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (8), Mike Matheson (5)1–1
- P11:53Cody Glass Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:05Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Simon Nemec (8)MTL 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 55% → 73% +19NJ 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P30:59Jake Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2), Noah Dobson (9)MTL 2 – 2 NJ · MTL 23% → 46% +23MTL 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P310:33Oliver Kapanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Newhook (5)MTL 3 – 2 NJ · MTL 48% → 80% +33MTL 48% → 80%+33 pts
- P318:53Timo Meier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (7), Jack Hughes (8)MTL 3 – 3 NJ · NJ <1% → 51% +50NJ <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT1:33Jesper Bratt Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneMTL 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 51% → 94% +43NJ 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML MTL +120 / NJ -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -128
- MTL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +35 Elo | NJ 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–10 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–5 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.