Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:40Alex Newhook Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P317:37Ivan Demidov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (10), Mike Matheson (4)3–3
- P312:27Tim Stützle Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Tyler Kleven (1)3–2
- P219:49Michael Amadio Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (4), Artem Zub (7)2–2
- P211:53Drake Batherson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P19:25Juraj Slafkovský Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (16), Cole Caufield (5)0–2
- P17:05Cole Caufield Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:53Drake Batherson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 2 MTL · OTT 14% → 30% +15OTT 14% → 30%+15 pts
- P219:49Michael Amadio Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (4), Artem Zub (7)OTT 2 – 2 MTL · OTT 26% → 50% +24OTT 26% → 50%+24 pts
- P312:27Tim Stützle Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Tyler Kleven (1)OTT 3 – 2 MTL · OTT 50% → 85% +35OTT 50% → 85%+35 pts
- P317:37Ivan Demidov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (10), Mike Matheson (4)OTT 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 3% → 50% +47MTL 3% → 50%+47 pts
- OT1:40Alex Newhook Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 50% → 94% +44MTL 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 50%
- ML OTT -110 / MTL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MTL -100
- OTT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +28 Elo | MTL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 3285.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 28th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Elo rating | 149819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–3 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.