Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Senators- Lars EllerGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Drake Batherson Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P317:11Jake Sanderson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (8), Jordan Spence (5)3–3
- P38:16Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (3)3–2
- P32:36Artem Zub Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (4), Drake Batherson (9)2–2
- P115:53Matt Coronato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5), Rasmus Andersson (2)2–1
- P17:37Lars Eller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (3), Thomas Chabot (5)1–1
- P15:51Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (4), MacKenzie Weegar (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:37Lars Eller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (3), Thomas Chabot (5)CGY 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 44% → 59% +15OTT 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P115:53Matt Coronato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5), Rasmus Andersson (2)CGY 2 – 1 OTT · CGY 41% → 58% +17CGY 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P32:36Artem Zub Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (4), Drake Batherson (9)CGY 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 29% → 55% +26OTT 29% → 55%+26 pts
- P38:16Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (3)CGY 3 – 2 OTT · CGY 46% → 76% +31CGY 46% → 76%+31 pts
- P317:11Jake Sanderson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (8), Jordan Spence (5)CGY 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 5% → 52% +47OTT 5% → 52%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML CGY +140 / OTT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 61.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- CGY +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | −4 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +81 Elo | OTT 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 4.030th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 53.8%5th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 85.3%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 281–9 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 28 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
| 1st of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 32 |
| 25th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.