Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cam YorkGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Cam YorkPoints2
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Kirby DachPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P310:51Nikita Grebenkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (6), Jamie Drysdale (4)4–4
- P215:57Ivan Demidov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (12)3–4
- P213:28Kirby Dach Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (11), Jayden Struble (3)3–3
- P24:15Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (8), Cole Caufield (6)3–2
- P23:12Kirby Dach Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (7), Brendan Gallagher (7)3–1
- P17:50Bobby Brink Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (6), Trevor Zegras (11)3–0
- P17:07Cam York Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (10), Travis Konecny (5)2–0
- P11:56Bobby Brink Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (4), Cam York (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:56Bobby Brink Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (4), Cam York (6)PHI 1 – 0 MTL · PHI 42% → 57% +15PHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P24:15Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (8), Cole Caufield (6)PHI 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 21% → 38% +16MTL 21% → 38%+16 pts
- P213:28Kirby Dach Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (11), Jayden Struble (3)PHI 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 34% → 55% +21MTL 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P215:57Ivan Demidov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (12)PHI 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 55% → 76% +21MTL 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P310:51Nikita Grebenkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (6), Jamie Drysdale (4)PHI 4 – 4 MTL · PHI 16% → 47% +31PHI 16% → 47%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML PHI +130 / MTL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MTL: Elo 58.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MTL -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −6 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +59 Elo | MTL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 31st of 320–3 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149028th of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 150018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.