Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals2
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:20Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (5)2–1
- P37:06Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Joel Hanley (2)2–0
- P22:15Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (2), Brayden Pachal (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:15Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (2), Brayden Pachal (1)CGY 1 – 0 PHI · CGY 48% → 66% +18CGY 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P37:06Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Joel Hanley (2)CGY 2 – 0 PHI · CGY 78% → 94% +16CGY 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P314:20Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (5)CGY 2 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → 12% +11PHI <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML CGY +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- CGY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −17 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 1st of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 15116th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 146329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.