Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Jake BeanAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Predators- Matthew WoodGoals1
- Matthew WoodAssists1
- Matthew WoodPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Filip Forsberg Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none2–4
- P311:57Joel Farabee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (7)2–3
- P34:39Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Bean (1), Matt Coronato (2)1–3
- P114:17Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (4), Matthew Wood (2)0–3
- P111:18Matthew Wood Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (3), Nick Blankenburg (1)0–2
- P110:29Michael Bunting Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Spencer Stastney (4), Justin Barron (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:29Michael Bunting Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Spencer Stastney (4), Justin Barron (4)CGY 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 51% → 67% +16NSH 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P111:18Matthew Wood Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (3), Nick Blankenburg (1)CGY 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 67% → 80% +13NSH 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P114:17Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (4), Matthew Wood (2)CGY 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 81% → 90% +9NSH 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P34:39Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Bean (1), Matt Coronato (2)CGY 1 – 3 NSH · CGY 1% → 7% +6CGY 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P311:57Joel Farabee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (7)CGY 2 – 3 NSH · CGY 2% → 16% +13CGY 2% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 51%
- ML CGY -105 / NSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +13 Elo | NSH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.3 | Margin | −1.029th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–423rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 32 |
| 26th of 321471 | Elo rating | 145330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–2 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.