New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints3
RangersScoring summary
- P319:30Anders Lee Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6), Anthony Duclair (3)5–0
- P317:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Jonathan Drouin (8)4–0
- P218:42Bo Horvat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (7), Mathew Barzal (9)3–0
- P119:27Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5)2–0
- P110:29Bo Horvat Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (4), Kyle Palmieri (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:29Bo Horvat Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (4), Kyle Palmieri (7)NYI 1 – 0 NYR · NYI 43% → 59% +16NYI 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P119:27Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5)NYI 2 – 0 NYR · NYI 61% → 76% +16NYI 61% → 76%+16 pts
- P218:42Bo Horvat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (7), Mathew Barzal (9)NYI 3 – 0 NYR · NYI 87% → 96% +9NYI 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P317:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Jonathan Drouin (8)NYI 4 – 0 NYR · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:30Anders Lee Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6), Anthony Duclair (3)NYI 5 – 0 NYR · NYI 100% → 100% +0NYI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML NYI +130 / NYR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 62.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -138
- NYI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +86 Elo | NYR 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 0–632nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321462 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–7 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.