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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, HBO Max, truTV, MSG

Away

Hurricanes

8-4-0

3–0

at

Home

Rangers

6-6-2

CAR 51%NYR 49%

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Madison Square Garden · TNT, HBO Max, truTV, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored CAR favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Rangers

    Scoring summary

    • P318:21Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
    • P217:07Sean Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (4), Mark Jankowski (2)2–0
    • P113:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (1), Sebastian Aho (8)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P113:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (1), Sebastian Aho (8)CAR 1 – 0 NYR · CAR 51% → 67% +16
    2. P217:07Sean Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (4), Mark Jankowski (2)CAR 2 – 0 NYR · CAR 73% → 88% +16
    3. P318:21Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 0 NYR · CAR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 51%

    Toss-upHit
    CAR 51%NYR 49%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 51%
    ML CAR -115 / NYR -105
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 49%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 49%
    Ratings vs. market
    −2.5 pts
    CAR: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
    Fair odds
    CAR -104
    NYR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CAR 2.8 – 2.7 NYR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCARNYRWhy
    Team rating15421507Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−9+1CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsNYR +10 EloNYR 51.4%
    Market-implied ratingsNYR 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastNYR 50.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
    CARStatNYR
    2nd of 323.7Goals scored2.431st of 32
    11th of 322.9Goals allowed2.41st of 32
    3rd of 32+0.8Margin0.016th of 32
    4th of 3254.1%Shot share52.6%8th of 32
    13th of 3290.2%Save percentage91.9%2nd of 32
    7th of 326–4Last 104–621st of 32
    7th of 324–3Road vs home0–531st of 32
    21st of 321495Opponent Elo149325th of 32
    5th of 321542Elo rating150714th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    HurricanesRangers
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCARNYR
    Puck line6–57–6
    Last 105–55–5
    Favorite4–53–5
    Underdog2–04–1
    Overs–unders6–55–8
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CAR 7–6 NYR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.