New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:27Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (5)4–1
- P37:29Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Taylor Raddysh (1)3–1
- P24:52Noah Laba Goal (3) Batted, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (6), Artemi Panarin (7)2–1
- P111:06J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (4), Andrew Copp (5)1–1
- P16:46Will Cuylle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Artemi Panarin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:46Will Cuylle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Artemi Panarin (6)NYR 1 – 0 DET · NYR 48% → 63% +15NYR 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P111:06J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (4), Andrew Copp (5)NYR 1 – 1 DET · DET 36% → 52% +16DET 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P24:52Noah Laba Goal (3) Batted, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (6), Artemi Panarin (7)NYR 2 – 1 DET · NYR 48% → 67% +18NYR 48% → 67%+18 pts
- P37:29Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Taylor Raddysh (1)NYR 3 – 1 DET · NYR 78% → 94% +16NYR 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P38:27Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (5)NYR 4 – 1 DET · NYR 95% → >99% +4NYR 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML NYR +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- DET: Elo 56.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- NYR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.4%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–0 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.