Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Axel Sandin-PellikkaAssists1
- Moritz SeiderPoints1
Sharks- Sam DickinsonGoals1
- Patrick GilesAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00James van Riemsdyk Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P316:55Sam Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (7), Patrick Giles (1)2–2
- P310:16Moritz Seider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (2), Alex DeBrincat (11)2–1
- P30:49Jeff Skinner Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (4), Dmitry Orlov (10)1–1
- P218:05Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (3), Dylan Larkin (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:05Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (3), Dylan Larkin (10)DET 1 – 0 SJ · DET 58% → 79% +21DET 58% → 79%+21 pts
- P30:49Jeff Skinner Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (4), Dmitry Orlov (10)DET 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 20% → 42% +22SJ 20% → 42%+22 pts
- P310:16Moritz Seider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (2), Alex DeBrincat (11)DET 2 – 1 SJ · DET 56% → 85% +30DET 56% → 85%+30 pts
- P316:55Sam Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (7), Patrick Giles (1)DET 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 5% → 47% +42SJ 5% → 47%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -195 / SJ +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DET: Elo 65.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -175
- SJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +112 Elo | DET 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 87.3%30th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
| 6th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 32 |
| 14th of 321508 | Elo rating | 138832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–4 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.