Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Artturi LehkonenAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Sharks- Philipp KurashevGoals2
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:48Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (5)2–3
- P29:10Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) , assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Valeri Nichushkin (4)2–2
- P24:07Philipp Kurashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (5), John Klingberg (2)1–2
- P118:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (3), Shakir Mukhamadullin (3)1–1
- P10:30Martin Necas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (14), Devon Toews (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:30Martin Necas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (14), Devon Toews (3)COL 1 – 0 SJ · COL 68% → 80% +12COL 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P118:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (3), Shakir Mukhamadullin (3)COL 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 20% → 35% +14SJ 20% → 35%+14 pts
- P24:07Philipp Kurashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (5), John Klingberg (2)COL 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 36% → 54% +19SJ 36% → 54%+19 pts
- P29:10Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) , assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Valeri Nichushkin (4)COL 2 – 2 SJ · COL 43% → 63% +20COL 43% → 63%+20 pts
- OT1:48Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (5)COL 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 46% → 93% +47SJ 46% → 93%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML COL -240 / SJ +200
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- COL: Elo 65.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -212
- SJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −6 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +107 Elo | COL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 4.431st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.1% | Shot share | 45.6%30th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 86.4%30th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 9th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 1–528th of 32 |
| 7th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321559 | Elo rating | 138532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–0 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.