Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints3
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:22Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (8), Nathan MacKinnon (9)4–2
- P312:01Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (6), Ben Hutton (3)3–2
- P310:11Brent Burns Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7)3–1
- P32:51Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (5), Mitch Marner (11)2–1
- P24:32Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3)2–0
- P10:41Martin Necas Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (13), Devon Toews (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:41Martin Necas Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (13), Devon Toews (2)COL 1 – 0 VGK · COL 56% → 70% +14COL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P24:32Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3)COL 2 – 0 VGK · COL 72% → 86% +13COL 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P32:51Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (5), Mitch Marner (11)COL 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 7% → 22% +15VGK 7% → 22%+15 pts
- P310:11Brent Burns Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7)COL 3 – 1 VGK · COL 83% → 97% +14COL 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P312:01Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (6), Ben Hutton (3)COL 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 2% → 15% +13VGK 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML COL -140 / VGK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- COL: Elo 46.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- VGK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +26 Elo | VGK 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.96th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.4% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 11th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321555 | Elo rating | 15416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.