Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors VGK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:45Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Jeremy Lauzon (3)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:45Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Jeremy Lauzon (3)DET 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 59% → 78% +19VGK 59% → 78%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML DET +160 / VGK -190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 57.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -170
- DET +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −19 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +49 Elo | VGK 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15376th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.