Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:33Kirill Kaprizov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (1)5–2
- P218:51Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (8), Ryan Pulock (6)4–2
- P29:05Marco Rossi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Daemon Hunt (1)4–1
- P25:56Brock Faber Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P24:38Emil Heineman Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Mathew Barzal (8)2–1
- P112:32Danila Yurov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (3), Marcus Foligno (1)2–0
- P17:24Vincent Hinostroza Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (3), Marcus Johansson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:24Vincent Hinostroza Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (3), Marcus Johansson (8)MIN 1 – 0 NYI · MIN 41% → 57% +15MIN 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P112:32Danila Yurov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (3), Marcus Foligno (1)MIN 2 – 0 NYI · MIN 58% → 73% +15MIN 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P24:38Emil Heineman Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Mathew Barzal (8)MIN 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 22% → 38% +16NYI 22% → 38%+16 pts
- P25:56Brock Faber Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 1 NYI · MIN 62% → 79% +16MIN 62% → 79%+16 pts
- P29:05Marco Rossi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Daemon Hunt (1)MIN 4 – 1 NYI · MIN 80% → 91% +11MIN 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 59%
- ML MIN +135 / NYI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 60.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +7 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +72 Elo | NYI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.