Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals2
- Aatu RatyAssists2
- Drew O'ConnorPoints2
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:43Ryan Hartman Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Hinostroza (3)2–5
- P37:00Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (4)2–4
- P35:46Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Vladimir Tarasenko (6)1–4
- P34:07Vincent Hinostroza Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (2)1–3
- P213:49Marco Rossi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (5), Vladimir Tarasenko (5)1–2
- P25:34Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (1), Aatu Raty (3)1–1
- P115:53Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (6), Matt Boldy (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:53Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (6), Matt Boldy (8)VAN 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 60% → 75% +15MIN 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P25:34Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (1), Aatu Raty (3)VAN 1 – 1 MIN · VAN 24% → 41% +17VAN 24% → 41%+17 pts
- P213:49Marco Rossi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (5), Vladimir Tarasenko (5)VAN 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 58% → 77% +20MIN 58% → 77%+20 pts
- P34:07Vincent Hinostroza Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (2)VAN 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 80% → 94% +14MIN 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P35:46Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Vladimir Tarasenko (6)VAN 1 – 4 MIN · MIN 95% → >99% +4MIN 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML VAN +150 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -159
- VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.929th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.9% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 8th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 20th of 321494 | Elo rating | 147625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.