Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals1
- Sean WalkerAssists1
- Sean WalkerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P20:46Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson Blake (6)3–4
- P20:37Matt Boldy Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (8), Jared Spurgeon (3)3–3
- P116:51Sean Walker Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), K'Andre Miller (3)2–3
- P113:45Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (5), Sebastian Aho (9)2–2
- P113:24Brock Faber Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (11), Marcus Johansson (7)2–1
- P112:53Jackson Blake Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2)1–1
- P15:34Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:53Jackson Blake Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2)MIN 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 45% → 62% +16CAR 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P113:24Brock Faber Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (11), Marcus Johansson (7)MIN 2 – 1 CAR · MIN 38% → 55% +16MIN 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P113:45Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (5), Sebastian Aho (9)MIN 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 45% → 61% +16CAR 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P20:37Matt Boldy Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (8), Jared Spurgeon (3)MIN 3 – 3 CAR · MIN 24% → 39% +16MIN 24% → 39%+16 pts
- P20:46Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson Blake (6)MIN 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 61% → 76% +16CAR 61% → 76%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML MIN +160 / CAR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 64.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +101 Elo | CAR 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 54.1%3rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.