Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Tyson JostAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:38Marcus Johansson Goal (6) , assists: Kirill Kaprizov (10), Brock Faber (6)2–3
- P319:59Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (2)2–2
- P216:01Zeev Buium Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (5), Marcus Johansson (6)1–2
- P25:16Matthew Wood Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael McCarron (3), Tyson Jost (1)1–1
- P110:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (2), Vladimir Tarasenko (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (2), Vladimir Tarasenko (7)NSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 65% → 79% +13MIN 65% → 79%+13 pts
- P25:16Matthew Wood Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael McCarron (3), Tyson Jost (1)NSH 1 – 1 MIN · NSH 21% → 37% +16NSH 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P216:01Zeev Buium Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (5), Marcus Johansson (6)NSH 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 61% → 80% +19MIN 61% → 80%+19 pts
- P319:59Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (2)NSH 2 – 2 MIN · NSH 0% → 50% +50NSH 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:38Marcus Johansson Goal (6) , assists: Kirill Kaprizov (10), Brock Faber (6)NSH 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → >99% +47MIN 53% → >99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 67%
- ML NSH +190 / MIN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -201
- NSH +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +99 Elo | MIN 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.930th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
| 8th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 30th of 321454 | Elo rating | 148024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.