Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Canucks

7-7-0

5–4

at

Home

Predators

5-6-3

VAN 50%NSH 50%

You didn't pick this one.

Bridgestone Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.

NSH favored VAN favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTNSH50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Predators

Scoring summary

  • OT4:58Brock Boeser Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (7)5–4
  • P316:37Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (3), Michael Bunting (5)4–4
  • P311:52Michael Bunting Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Spencer Stastney (5), Fedor Svechkov (1)4–3
  • P33:02Evander Kane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Marcus Pettersson (3)4–2
  • P218:45Erik Haula Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (5), Luke Evangelista (7)3–2
  • P215:05Brock Boeser Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Willander (1), Elias Pettersson (2)3–1
  • P212:57Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Elias Pettersson (6)2–1
  • P114:45Evander Kane Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Arshdeep Bains (3)1–1
  • P16:47Filip Forsberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (4), Luke Evangelista (6)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:45Evander Kane Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Arshdeep Bains (3)VAN 1 – 1 NSH · VAN 34% → 50% +16
  2. P212:57Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Elias Pettersson (6)VAN 2 – 1 NSH · VAN 50% → 71% +21
  3. P33:02Evander Kane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Marcus Pettersson (3)VAN 4 – 2 NSH · VAN 75% → 92% +16
  4. P316:37Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (3), Michael Bunting (5)VAN 4 – 4 NSH · NSH 6% → 50% +44
  5. OT4:58Brock Boeser Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (7)VAN 5 – 4 NSH · VAN 50% → 100% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Predators 50%

Toss-upMiss
VAN 50%NSH 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
NSH 50%
ML VAN -110 / NSH -110
Pre-line forecast
NSH 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NSH 50%
Ratings vs. market
−0.3 pts
NSH: Elo 49.7%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
NSH -100
VAN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.8 – 2.8 NSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANNSHWhy
Team rating14891456Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+1VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +2 EloVAN 50.3%
Market-implied ratingsNSH 52.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNSH 52.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNSH 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatNSH
27th of 322.7Goals scored2.530th of 32
19th of 323.2Goals allowed3.323rd of 32
26th of 32−0.5Margin−0.828th of 32
31st of 3245.3%Shot share47.8%23rd of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage89.7%17th of 32
15th of 325–5Last 103–729th of 32
12th of 324–4Road vs home4–420th of 32
18th of 321497Opponent Elo15069th of 32
21st of 321489Elo rating145630th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksPredators
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVANNSH
Puck line7–66–7
Last 106–44–6
Favorite1–31–3
Underdog6–35–4
Overs–unders8–55–8
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 8–5 NSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.