Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ryan GravesGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Ryan GravesPoints1
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Arseny GritsyukPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Paul Cotter Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P212:33Ryan Graves Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (10), Sidney Crosby (9)1–1
- P119:12Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:12Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 60% → 76% +16NJ 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P212:33Ryan Graves Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (10), Sidney Crosby (9)PIT 1 – 1 NJ · PIT 23% → 42% +19PIT 23% → 42%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML PIT +155 / NJ -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +46 Elo | NJ 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 20th of 321493 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–3 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.