Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints3
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:56Connor Dewar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (6)3–5
- P311:16Bryan Rust Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17), Ben Kindel (2)3–4
- P219:55Tom Wilson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (10), John Carlson (7)3–3
- P214:55Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Alex Ovechkin (7)2–3
- P29:41Dylan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (6)1–3
- P22:08Anthony Mantha Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Thomas Novak (5), Blake Lizotte (1)0–3
- P111:32Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (9), Erik Karlsson (11)0–2
- P12:22Sidney Crosby Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (1), Bryan Rust (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Sidney Crosby Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (1), Bryan Rust (8)WSH 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 50% → 65% +15PIT 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P111:32Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (9), Erik Karlsson (11)WSH 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 66% → 79% +13PIT 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P214:55Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Alex Ovechkin (7)WSH 2 – 3 PIT · WSH 13% → 29% +16WSH 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P219:55Tom Wilson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (10), John Carlson (7)WSH 3 – 3 PIT · WSH 26% → 50% +24WSH 26% → 50%+24 pts
- P311:16Bryan Rust Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17), Ben Kindel (2)WSH 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 50% → 83% +33PIT 50% → 83%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML WSH -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- WSH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +45 Elo | PIT 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 26th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321523 | Elo rating | 149020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 11–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.