Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Sonny MilanoPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bowen Byram Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P219:17Sonny Milano Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (2), Martin Fehervary (4)3–3
- P118:45Isak Rosen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (4), Conor Timmins (4)2–3
- P110:02Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (5), Owen Power (4)2–2
- P12:30Tage Thompson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (3), Jordan Greenway (1)2–1
- P12:15Aliaksei Protas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (3), Tom Wilson (7)2–0
- P11:07Dylan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:07Dylan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (3)WSH 1 – 0 BUF · WSH 46% → 60% +15WSH 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P12:30Tage Thompson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (3), Jordan Greenway (1)WSH 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 26% → 39% +13BUF 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P110:02Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (5), Owen Power (4)WSH 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 38% → 54% +16BUF 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:45Isak Rosen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (4), Conor Timmins (4)WSH 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 54% → 70% +17BUF 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P219:17Sonny Milano Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (2), Martin Fehervary (4)WSH 3 – 3 BUF · WSH 25% → 47% +23WSH 25% → 47%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML WSH +110 / BUF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +31 Elo | BUF 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–318th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 32 |
| 11th of 321520 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.