St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Alexey ToropchenkoGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Alexey ToropchenkoPoints1
Capitals- Anthony BeauvillierGoals2
- Jakob ChychrunAssists3
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:00Tom Wilson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (3), Trevor van Riemsdyk (1)1–6
- P30:37Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (4), Cam Fowler (5)1–5
- P216:20Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none0–5
- P29:28John Carlson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (4), Martin Fehervary (5)0–4
- P24:33Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (7)0–3
- P22:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6)0–2
- P19:50Tom Wilson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (6), Jakob Chychrun (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:50Tom Wilson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (6), Jakob Chychrun (5)STL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 72% +15WSH 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P22:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6)STL 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 73% → 86% +13WSH 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P24:33Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (7)STL 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 87% → 94% +8WSH 87% → 94%+8 pts
- P29:28John Carlson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (4), Martin Fehervary (5)STL 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 95% → 99% +3WSH 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P216:20Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 5 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +1WSH >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML STL +130 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -138
- STL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +59 Elo | WSH 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 53.4%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.4% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.