Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:37Pius Suter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (6), Brayden Schenn (4)2–3
- P218:38Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (4), Jimmy Snuggerud (4)2–2
- P216:08Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (4), Robert Thomas (6)2–1
- P22:27Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10), Connor McDavid (16)2–0
- P118:38Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:38Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (9)EDM 1 – 0 STL · EDM 53% → 69% +17EDM 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P22:27Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10), Connor McDavid (16)EDM 2 – 0 STL · EDM 70% → 84% +14EDM 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P216:08Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (4), Robert Thomas (6)EDM 2 – 1 STL · STL 11% → 26% +15STL 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P218:38Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (4), Jimmy Snuggerud (4)EDM 2 – 2 STL · STL 25% → 48% +23STL 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P318:37Pius Suter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (6), Brayden Schenn (4)EDM 2 – 3 STL · STL 50% → >99% +50STL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 53%
- ML EDM -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +10 Elo | EDM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 4.332nd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.432nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 84.8%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
| 28th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321545 | Elo rating | 149819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–10 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | — | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.